Path of Exile 2's chance orb system offers exciting opportunities for players to gamble on powerful unique items. This comprehensive dive into fork spear chancing reveals the actual probabilities and profit potential when targeting the coveted Tangle Tongue unique spear. Through meticulous tracking of 288 attempts, we uncover the true cost, success rates, and market value of this high-risk, high-reward crafting method.
Initial Setup and Investment
Preparing for a large-scale gambling session requires careful planning and significant upfront investment. The base materials formed the bulk of the experiment's costs:
| Material | Quantity | Unit Price | Total Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fork Spears | 288 | 13.5 exalted | 3,888 exalted |
| Chance Orbs | 288 | 10 exalted | 2,880 exalted |
| Total Initial | – | – | 6,768 exalted (~52 divines) |
Total Attempts
Fork spears chanced
Success Rate
Tangle Tongues obtained
Initial Cost
Just for spears/chances
The Chancing Process and Results
The actual chancing process proved far more successful than initial estimates predicted. While expecting 20-30 Tangle Tongues from 288 attempts, the reality exceeded all projections:
First Quad Tab Results
Immediate success on first attempt set the tone for the entire session. The first 144 spears yielded approximately 50 Tangle Tongues, with several instances of back-to-back successes that defied expectations.
Second Quad Tab Surprise
The second batch maintained the incredible pace, with multiple streaks of 3-5 consecutive successes. This consistency suggested the 35% success rate wasn't just early luck but represented the true underlying probability.
Final tally showed 103 successful conversions from 288 attempts. This volume created both opportunity and challenge – while more items meant more chances for valuable rolls, it also significantly increased the time and resources needed for post-processing each one.
Post-Chance Processing Strategy
Raw Tangle Tongues hold minimal value (approximately 10 exalted each). True profit potential emerges through careful enhancement:
| Enhancement | Cost per Item | Total Cost (103 items) | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 6-7 whetstones | ~650 whetstones | Improve base stats |
| Socketing | 1 artificer orb | 103 orbs | Add valuable sockets |
| Corruption | 1 omen | 103 omens | Chance for powerful implicits |
Valuable Outcomes and Market Analysis
Corruption outcomes varied widely, but several standouts emerged with exceptional value:
Top Roll (22.21% Crit)
This exceptional roll commanded 16+ divine value immediately. The high critical hit chance (out of possible 25%) made it desirable for endgame crit builds.
Near-Perfect Rolls
Several spears landed in the 20-22% crit range, each worth 3-7 divines. These formed the backbone of the experiment's profitability.
Total Sold
High-value items sold
Unsold Inventory
Estimated 10ex each
Sales Revenue
From premium items
Final Profit Breakdown
Complete Financial Summary
Total Investment: 57.28 divines (7,504 exalted) including all materials and processing costs
Revenue from Sales: 64 divines from immediate premium sales
Unsold Inventory Value: Estimated 5.65 divines from remaining 74 spears at 10ex each
Net Profit: ~12 divines (1,620 exalted) after all expenses
While the profit margin appears slim relative to the massive investment, several factors improved the outcome: – The higher-than-expected success rate (35.7% vs predicted 10-15%) – Multiple high-tier crit rolls from corruptions – Strong market demand for well-rolled Tangle Tongues
This experiment proves that while not the most efficient currency-making method, Tangle Tongue gambling offers reasonable returns with proper post-processing. The key lies in volume – attempting this with smaller batches would likely prove unprofitable due to variance in success rates and corruption outcomes.